Tom Izzo Retrospective, Part Two: Upsets and Two-Day Preps

In Part One of this three-part series, we reviewed some of Michigan State head basketball coach Tom Izzo's many records and accolades in the Big Ten. In addition, we counted up and summarized his win totals and accomplishments in each round of the NCAA Tournament.

While the raw numbers are impressive, they only tell a part of the story. Not all NCAA Tournament paths are the same. It is significantly easier to advance in the tournament as a high seed and harder as a lower seed.

Izzo has shown that he can do both.

Another record that he currently holds is the total number of tournament wins as the lower seed (17). The only other coaches in history with more than 10 "seed upset wins" are former Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim (15), Arizona's Lute Olson (11), and Villanova legend Rollie Massimino (11). The active coach with the next highest number of upset wins is Gonzaga's Mark Few with nine.

To put this into perspective, Izzo has as many or more upset wins in the NCAA Tournament than several other legendary coaches have total tournament games played as the lower seed. This includes Duke's Mike Krzyewski (12 total games as the underdog out of 132 total games), Roy Williams (15), Rick Pitino (17), John Calipari (17), Bill Self (9), Florida's Billy Donovan (9), North Carolina's Dean Smith (8), just to name a few.

Figure 1 below visualizes this performance by plotting the winning percentages for roughly the top 50 NCAA Tournament coaches of all time. This group loosely contains all coaches with at least 20 tournament wins in the modern era, or active coaches with at least 10 wins.

The x-axis shows the winning percentage for each coach as the seed favorite. The y-axis shows the winning percentage for each coach as the underdog. The numbers in parentheses give the total number of tournament games each coach has played as either the favorite or the underdog.

Figure 1: Winning percentages for the top 56 all-time NCAA tournament coaches divided up by wins as the favorite (x-axis) and as the underdog (y-axis). The numbers in parentheses give the total number of tournament games each coach has played as either the favorite or the underdog.

The green square in Figure 1 maps out the area where Izzo has a better win percentage both as the favorite and as the underdog. Only 14 total coaches fall outside of this area.

There are only eight total coaches in this group that have a better win percentage as the favorite than Izzo and only four have played more than eight games as the higher seed. Izzo has coached in 52 games as the higher seed.

The four coaches with that higher volume are UConn's Boddy Hurley (16-2 as the favorite), Louisville legend Denny Crum (28-4), Utah and St. Louis' Rick Majerus (14-2), and former West Virginia and Michigan coach John Beilein (17-3). These coaches all edge Tom Izzo's 44-8 record and 84.6% win percentage as a favorite.

Note that Chris Beard (7-0), Brad Stevens (6-0), Massimino (7-0) are all undefeated as the higher seed, but on fairly low volume. Dusty May's 7-1 record as the favorite is also notable.

There are a total of eight coaches in this group with a higher win percentage than Izzo as the underdog. Only three of them have more than 10 games as the lower seed. This list includes former Florida State coach Lennard Hamilton (6-5), former Xavier and Louisville coach Chris Mack (5-4), former Miami coach Jim Laranaga (9-8), former Ohio State coach Thad Matta (5-4), Donovan (6-3), and former Kansas and SMU coach Larry Brown (7-3).

May (4-2) and Massimino (11-9) are the only coaches on this list with a better win percentage than Izzo as both the higher and lower seed.

Izzo is also know for his skill in preparing his team for the second game of the weekend. His teams have a reputation for strong play after a "two-day prep." Quantitatively, Figure 2 below compares the performance of the same group of coaches as Figure 1. 

In this case the x-axis shows the win percentage on the first game of the weekend. The y-axis shows the win percentage for the second games where the two-day prep is needed.

Figure 2: Winning percentages for the top 56 all-time NCAA tournament coaches divided up by wins on the first day of the weekend (x-axis) and wins on the second day (y-axis) where a two-day prep is needed. The numbers in parentheses give the total number of tournament games each coach has played as in both scenarios.

On the first day of the weekend, Izzo's record of 35-17 (67%) is one of the few fairly pedestrian NCAA Tournament stats on his resume. It is good for just 26th place among this group of 56 coaches.

But Figure 2 does bolster the idea that he has a special ability to prepare his team on a limited timeline. Only six coaches own a better second day win percentage then Tom Izzo at 26-9 (74%) and only three of those coaches have done it having played more than six games.

The only high volume coaches on this list are Larranaga (7-2, 78%), Crum (18-4, 82%), and Krzyewski (44-14, 76%). The other three coaches are Iowa State's T.J. Otzelberger (3-1, 75%), Arizona's Tommy Llyod (5-0, 100%), and May (6-0, 100%). 

In both Figures 1 and 2, it is important to note that having a reasonable sample size is important. For example, after just his sixth year as a head coach, Tom Izzo was 16-3 (84%) in NCAA Tournament play with a National Title and two additional Final Fours and a Sweet 16 appearance in four tournaments.

Over this span, he was 16-1 (94%) as the higher seed and 0-1 as the underdog. Izzo was also 8-3 (73%) on the first day of the weekend and a perfect 8-0 on the second day. With the exception of upset wins, Izzo had an even more impressive position on both figures with these statistics after just his sixth year at the helm in East Lansing.

It is even more impressive that he accomplished these feats without the use of the transfer portal or an NIL sugar daddy. But it is also a reminder that the true proficiency of a head coach cannot be judged just on a handful of NCAA Tournament appearances.

Technically, former UConn coach Kevin Ollie (7-1, .875) and former Kansas State coach Jerome Tang (3-1, 0.750) have two of the highest NCAA Tournament win percentages in history. Ollie has a National Title and Tang appeared in the Elite Eight. But both coaches were fired from their respective universities and neither can be considered as an elite college basketball coach.

One or two NCAA Tournament runs are nice, but consistent NCAA Tournament performance is far more rare and far more special.

PREVIOUS: PART ONE

NEXT: PART THREE (coming soon)