A wild week of Big Ten action leaves the door cracked for a Spartan repeat
Illinois and Nebraska losses have opened up a new path for MSU to a possible Big Ten title
The Big Ten race is always a rollercoaster, but the past week has been a more volatile ride than usual.
Last Saturday, the Michigan State Spartans got a much needed win over No. 5 Illinois in overtime at the Breslin Center. After three straight games of subpar performance, the version of the Spartans which can make a serious post-season run finally reemerged.
Some would argue that MSU broke out of the typical mid-season slump know in some circles as the Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle.
But East Lansing was not the only locale that was gripped by drama this week. On Tuesday night, Purdue went into to Lincoln, Nebraska and scored an upset win over the Cornhuskers. Later in the evening, the Wisconsin Badgers managed to to hand the Fighting Illini their second straight overtime loss, this time in the friendly confines of State Farm Center in Champaign, Illinois.
On Wednesday night, Michigan trailed by as many as 16 points in the second half at Northwestern. It looked for a while like the upset bug might bite the Wolverines as well. But the Wildcats went ice cold in the final 10 minutes as the Wolverines got red hot, and Michigan would go on to win by double digits.
As of Friday the 13th of February, Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings.
Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standing as of Feb. 13.
Michigan now has a two-game lead in the loss column over the rest of the field and an impressive +6 rating due to seven road victories to just one home loss. Illinois is a half game ahead of the rest of the contenders at 11-3 while Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan State are now all tied at 10-3.
Wisconsin and UCLA are a game back at 9-4 and Iowa rounds out the top eight in the conference at 8-4.
Table 2 below gives the updated Big Ten win matrix.
Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix.
The Wolverines' expected win total is 17.54 which implies there is roughly a 50-50 chance of Michigan finishing at 18-2 or better. Illinois (15.72) has the second-best expected win total and is just under a half-game ahead of Nebraska (15.30).
Purdue (14.72) is a little over a half-game behind Nebraska in expected wins. Michigan State (14.49) is just behind the Boilermakers. Despite being just a game back in the standings, Wisconsin (12.53) is almost two full games behind MSU in expected wins.
The Spartans and Boilermakers have similar Kenpom efficiencies and MSU actually has the easier closing schedule of the two teams. However, the fact that Purdue gets to host the only meeting of the year between the two teams appears to be the factor which gives Purdue a slightly higher expected win total.
