Breaking down the remaining Big Ten Tournament scenarios

The Big Ten Tournament will start next Tuesday in Chicago. The final Tournament bracket will not be released until Sunday evening, but based on the total number of remaining Big Ten games, it is now possible to summarize all of the possible bracket configurations.

I have crunched all of the numbers, and I will use this post to summarize the current landscape of the Big Ten Tournament bracket as things change. Also stayed tuned to our social media channel for the most up-to-date information.

Update as of March 6

Michigan State survived the late surge from Rutgers and is now guaranteed at least a tie for second place in the final Big Ten standings. Based on the Big Ten Tournament tiebreakers and remaining scenarios, the Spartans will either be the No. 2 (39% odds) or the No. 3 seed (61% odds) in Chicago next week. They will begin play in the tournament on Friday evening.

With just nine Big Ten regular season games remaining, there are still 512 ways that the season could end. Six of those games will determine the top 10 seeds in the Big Ten Tournament. The table below shows the updated odds for the 64 possible scenarios.

Table 1: All 64 scenarios for the top 10 seeds in the Big Ten Tournament

Another way to parse the data above is to consider the most likely first opponent for Michigan State in the tournament. As the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, the Spartans would first face either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed, assuming that there are no upsets in the Thursday session. There are only four teams that MSU could face on Friday if we make the no-upset assumption: Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio Sate and Purdue.

The Figure below gives the odds for each of those four scenarios, as well as the average odds that the Spartans would have to win the Big Ten Tournament in each scenario.

There is a 50% chance that No. 3 Michigan State is lined up to play No. 6 Wisconsin on Friday. As the numbers at the top of each bar show, this is also bracket configuration that gives Michigan State the best average odds to win the tournament at just under 16%.

The second best and second-most-likely scenario is for the No. 2 Spartans to line up to face No. 7 UCLA, although the two teams could also face each other as No. 3 and No. 6 seeds. Less likely and less favorable scenarios involve a potential Friday-night matchup with either Ohio State or Purdue.

Overall, the projected point spreads suggest that the most advantageous bracket configuration for Michigan State is for Nebraska to wind up as the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in either order. Ideally, Purdue and Illinois end up as the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds such that the Spartans would avoid playing Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue until the tournament final on Sunday, if the Spartans advance that far.

The most likely way for this to occur is if Purdue (-9 projected spread) beats Wisconsin on Saturday and if Nebraska (-6) beats Iowa on Sunday night.

MSU's best overall path in the Big Ten Tournament would be for Purdue and Nebraska to win and for Michigan State to upset Michigan in Ann Arbor. This would result in Michigan State claiming the No. 2 seed with a likely Friday night game against No. 7 UCLA or possibly No. 7 Ohio State. No. 3 Nebraska would be the likely Saturday opponent in the Big Ten semifinal.

For completeness, the 32 possible scenarios for the bottom portion of the bracket are shown below.

Table 1: All 32 scenarios for the bottom eight seeds in the Big Ten Tournament

Seeds No. 11 and No. 14 are possible first opponents for Michigan State in the scenario where the Spartans are the No. 3 seed. Washington is the mostly likely No. 11 seed (68%) and Rutgers is the most likely No. 14 seed (86%).

In the scenarios where Michigan State draws the No. 2 seed, Indiana is already locked in as the No. 10 seed. The Hoosiers would also be a possible Friday night opponent for the Spartans if there is an upset on Thursday.

Overall, there are still 147 possible unique Big Ten Tournament configurations that could occur. If the favorites win all nine remaining games, which has odds of 10.6%, the figure below shows what the bracket would look like.