The Spartans and Wolverines survive, Purdue falls, and the Big Ten picture shifts once again
Michigan's win over Nebraska has forced a likely four-way tie at the top of the conference - find out which teams have the advantage and why
Every night in the Big Ten has the potential for chaos, but on Tuesday night the action was particularly drama-filled.
In Piscataway, New Jersey, Michigan State trailed by as many as 12 points multiple times in the second half but rallied to tie the game with under 20 seconds to play to force overtime. In Ann Arbor, Michigan trailed a short-handed Nebraska squad by as many as 11 points before taking the lead in the final seconds.
Depending on which set of data one believes (ESPN or Kenpom), the Spartans had only a 10-15% chance to get the win over Rutgers in the final minutes of the game. Michigan had between a 20-30% chance to win late in the second half. But both the Spartans and Wolverine escaped Tuesday evening with a win.
Purdue was not so lucky in Bloomington as the Boilermakers lost to their rival, Indiana, by five points.
Table 1 below gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings through Wednesday night's conference action.
Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings through Jan. 29, 2026.
Michigan's win over Nebraska has created a three-way tie for first place with those two teams and Michigan State. Illinois can join the three teams to create a four-way tie with a win over Washington on Thursday night.
Nebraska continues to have the strongest strength of resume of the top four conference teams (+4.31 games better than expected of an average power four team). Illinois (+2.76) currently has the second-best resume, just ahead of Michigan State (+2.71) and Michigan (+2.62).
Purdue is now two games back of the lead pack in a three-way tie for fifth place with Wisconsin and UCLA at 7-3.
The updated Big Ten wins matrix is shown below in Table 2.
