Where does Michigan State go from here after the humbling loss at Wisconsin?

There are a few things about the 2025-2026 Michigan State men's basketball team that have become clearer over the past few weeks and in particular after Friday the 13th's dismal performance in Madison against the Wisconsin Badgers.

One odd observation is how opposite this season feels compared to last season. The 2024-2025 MSU team started slow and gained momentum as the season went on. This year's team started strong and now stuck in the mud.

Last year's team struggled during the trip to the West Coast. This year's team honestly has only played well on the road at Washington and at Oregon. The 2024-2025 team put Michigan in its place with double-digit wins in both meetings. The 2025-2026 team allowed the Wolverines to win at the Breslin Center for just the fourth time in over 30 years.

Both teams lost three of four games in the late January and early February, which we call the "Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle" part of the schedule. Last year's team rallied to win the Big Ten Conference by three games. In this year's much tougher Big Ten, Michigan State is now effectively out of the race.

Some people have made the argument that the last few weeks ago have shown that MSU's ceiling is not as high as fans thought that is was. But I do not believe that is accurate. 

The Spartans have played a total of eight teams ranked in the top-30 of Kenpom.com and the national polls. Michigan State defeated Illinois, North Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky and Iowa. Three of those five wins were by double-digits.

The Spartans lost to Michigan, Duke and Nebraska. All three of those teams are currently ranked in the top-seven in the national polls. Michigan State was within one possession of the lead with at most four minutes remaining in all three of those contests. The Spartans have shown that they have the potential to play with and beat anyone in the country. The ceiling for this team remains high.

What the last four few weeks have told us is that the floor of this team is lower than fans may have thought. For whatever reason, the Spartans have only managed to play one decent game since destroying Maryland on Jan. 24. 

If Michigan State collectively brings an A-/B+ level of effort and intensity, it can compete with any team. If MSU only brings a C- level of effort, it is not good enough to win on the road in conference play. 

The biggest question now in East Lansing is which version of the Spartans will fans see for the rest of the season? Historically, MSU tends to surge and overachieve from mid-February to the end of the season. But trends are only trends until they aren't. 

Just like all MSU teams that have come before them, this team needs to decide how it want its legacy to be defined. The Spartans are currently a very good team with the potential to be great. But potential means nothing if it is not acted upon.

Update on the Big Ten Race

Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings following last weekend's action.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standing as of Feb. 16.

The Michigan Wolverines continue to have a two-game lead in the loss column compared to the rest of the field. The Spartans' loss to Wisconsin has dropped MSU into a tie for fifth place with Wisconsin. The Badgers now own a tiebreaker with Michigan State for the purposes of Big Ten Tournament seeding.

Michigan State is also one of only two teams in the top-half of the conference with negative "luck."  This means that based on overall Kenpom efficiency margins, MSU should have won more than 10 games so far in Big Ten play. 

Sometime luck is simply that. It is impacted by bad bounces, cold/hot shooting, etc. However, it is also true that good teams tend to make their own luck by playing with grit and intensity. The Spartans have simply not done enough to create their own luck over the past few weeks. That is now showing up in the standings.

Table 2 below shows the updated odds for each team to win or share the regular season Big Ten title.