ANALYSIS: Why Coen Carr’s season is being misread
The efficiency dip misses the point of a season defined by expanded responsibility, defensive growth, and long-term upside
Despite what some talking heads — and even some Spartan fans — suggest, Coen Carr is actually good at basketball.
He has put together a very solid first half of the season and is positioned for a strong finish in Big Ten play and the postseason. While his offensive efficiency was higher last year - albeit it in a smaller role with less defensive attention - Carr has been more impactful on both ends of the floor this season.
More importantly, the strides he has made this year are the kind that tend to pay dividends next season and over the course of a professional career.
This season, Carr has taken on roughly 33% more minutes and used about 25% more possessions. At the same time, he has made significant strides as an individual defender, both off the ball and on it — particularly against smaller guards and wings, and especially when tracking shooters through screens in trail situations.
While Carr’s three-point percentage remains frustratingly stuck around 20%, his increased volume matters. It reflects both his own confidence and the staff’s confidence in his willingness and ability to take those shots. More concerning is the unexplained dip in his free-throw percentage. His form remains sound, as it was last season — the guide hand could arguably shift slightly away from the top of the ball, but his stroke and release are fundamentally solid. The issue has been focus, not mechanics.
Importantly, these two shortcomings account for essentially the entirety of the decline in his offensive rating. They are not structural problems, not skill regressions, and not legitimate causes for concern — and they should not form the foundation of any serious evaluation of Carr’s performance this season.
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The box score doesn’t explain Coen Carr’s season. Context does. Behind the paywall, we break down how his expanded role, defensive responsibilities, lineup combinations, and half-court usage are shaping his impact — and why those factors point to a meaningful second-half leap for both Carr and Michigan State.
