Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week 10: Golden Opportunities

It is no secret that the last few weeks have been difficult for the Michigan State football program. After a promising 3-0 start, the Spartans have dropped five straight games, including last week's game against their bitter in-state rivals from Ann Arbor. 

To add insult to injury, the only power four team that the Spartans have defeated, Boston College, is now 1-7 with exactly zero wins against FBS opponents. Michigan State needed overtime to beat the Eagles in Week Two.

There have been a few bright spots for Michigan State despite the current streak of futility. The Spartans trailed USC by just a touchdown in the fourth quarter. The Spartans had a seven-point lead late in the third quarter at Nebraska. Michigan State played No. 2 Indiana close in the first half on the road. The Spartans even had several chances to get back into the game late against Michigan, despite an overall poor performance.

There have been times throughout the first two-thirds of the season where each unit has shown a spark. The problem is that at least one of the other units seems to blow a tire at the same time. The Spartan offense struggled against Michigan, the Spartan defense struggled against Indiana and USC, the special teams' unit struggled at Nebraska, and everyone down the water boy, kickoff kids, and Zeke the Wonder Dog struggled against UCLA.

If Michigan State could get all three units playing serviceable football at the same time, the Spartans would suddenly look like a much better football team. It would not be a squad that would suddenly be the golden child of the conference, but it would at least be a team that is good enough to qualify for a bowl game. 

To this point, the Spartans have a golden opportunity to get back in the win column this weekend in Minneapolis against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. My analysis suggests that this Saturday's game is the second easiest game on the Big Ten schedule for Michigan State. It is likely the best remaining chance for the Spartans to get a conference win.

The Gophers have an odd resume so far this season. Minnesota has lackluster wins over Buffalo, Purdue, and Rutgers. The Gophers also lost on the road to very mediocre California team and have a pair of over 35-point losses at Iowa and at Ohio State.

However, just two weeks ago, Nebraska paid a visit to Minnesota only to lose 24-6. The fact that the Cornhuskers are the only shared opponent so far certainly does temper my enthusiasm. It also begs the question as to which version of the Gophers the Spartans will see this weekend.

Regardless, this is an opportunity that the desperate Spartans need to capitalize on. Coach Smith and his staff need to show fans some sign of hope that the program can turn around. A win in Minneapolis would not be some sort of golden ticket to guarantee that Michigan State is back on the track to a bowl game, but a win is a win, and positive steps are positive steps.

If the Spartans do return home with the sixth loss of the season on Saturday night, the leadership in the Michigan State athletic department will have a lot to discuss over the bye week. Instead of golden opportunities or golden tickets, for better or worse the discussion may turn to golden parachutes.

Michigan State Prediction

This year will mark the 50th match-up between Michigan State and the University of Minnesota going back to the Spartans' first year in the Big Ten conference in 1950. Michigan State leads the overall series, 30-19.

The Spartans went 4-2 against the Golden Gophers from 1950 to 1957, but Minnesota would then dominate the next phase of the series, winning eight of the nine contests between 1958 and 1972.

When the series resumed in 1975, Michigan State regained control of the series by posting an 18-2 record against the Gophers in the last quarter of the 20th century.

Since the year 2000, the series is evenly split. 7-7, with Minnesota currently holding a two-game win streak due to victories in 2022 and 2023.

The first decade of the 21st century was filled with upsets in this series. From 2001 to 2009, the underdog won five of the seven games. But, since 2010 the favored team 7-0. Michigan State is just 3-13 against the spread versus Minnesota since 1997, but the Spartans have won two of the last three games played in Minneapolis.

For this year's contest, the Vegas spread opened with the Golden Gophers as a 5.5-point favorite at home. This corresponds to a 35% chance that the Spartans will earn an upset win. Since the open, the line did move quickly in a Green and White direction. At the time of press, the Spartans are just a three-point underdog, which suggests the teams are evenly matched on a neutral field.

Overall, both my algorithm and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) are in alignment with the current line from Vegas. My computer's official prediction is Minnesota 27, Michigan State 25.

That said, I do think that there is a solid chance that the Spartans will feel their backs firmly pressed against the wall and will come out with their best effort. I like the odds the Michigan State finally gets that feel-good win that fans have been waiting for since last fall. They could then go into the bye week feeling good while they rest up and wait for reeling Penn State comes to town.

But if Michigan State drops a sixth game in a row, this time against a a very mediocre conference foe, it likely signals that the wheels have completely fallen off the bus. At that point, a 3-9 record and another coaching search may be imminent. 

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 10, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that any rankings discussed below are my system's power rankings and not any of the national polls.