Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week 13: Heart

As the 2025-26 Michigan State football season enters twilight, it would be easy to make the argument that there is nothing left for the Spartans to play for. The dreams of a late-season resurgence, a run to a bowl game, and maybe every a winning record were dashed last week as Michigan State fell to Penn State.

Uncertainty, rumors, and speculation about the future of the coaching staff are running rampant both on-line and in real life. To make matters worse, by some measure this weekend's contest on the road against Iowa is the third toughest game on the Spartans' schedule, behind only the road games at Indiana and at USC. 

Had Michigan State defeated Penn State last week, the showdown with the Hawkeyes would have had taken on new meaning. The Spartans would have had momentum and would have suddenly felt good about themselves for the first time in weeks. In contrast, Iowa is a team coming off two grueling, close losses to Oregon and at USC last week, 1,800 miles from home. 

Furthermore, the Hawkeyes travel next week to Lincoln to face their cross-border rivals from Nebraska. It is not a stretch to image Iowa looking ahead to that emotional contest with the Cornhuskers.

But in this timeline, it is easy to write off this week's game as a meaningly scrimmage between a team fighting for a second-tier bowl game and a team just trying to close out the season. Few would blame the Spartans if they were to phone it.

But the word on the street is that the morale in the Spartan locker room remains strong. The player are still locked in and ready to go to battle with one another, for each other, and for their coaches. What fans see on the field on Saturday to a large extent will be a test of this validity of these rumors.

What I want to see on Saturday is simple. I want to see the Spartans show some heart. I want to see them play with grit and pride. I want to see them hit hard, play smart, and execute the gameplan. I want to see them fight until the clock reads all zeros.

Sometimes in life the most underrated and underappreciated skill is the ability to show up and work hard, no matter the circumstances. Weeks like this one are the ultimate test of that skill. But are the Spartans equipped to pass that test?

If they are, there is no reason why this game cannot be competitive. Michigan State has applied game pressure to the majority of their Big Ten opponents well into the fourth quarter this year. For the reasons explained above, the Hawkeyes could be a quart low on motivation.

As we will see, the odds for a heartening upset win over Iowa are long. But as the old saying goes, if you put your head down and work hard, good things will happen. Spartans fans have been waiting for weeks for something, anything positive to happen on the gridiron. Maybe this week will be the week.

Would a win over Iowa cause some Spartan fans to have a change of heart about the direction and future of the program? Maybe. Maybe not. But if Michigan State pours their hearts out on the field in Iowa City Saturday afternoon, win or lose, it will say something powerful about the heart of the Spartans.

Michigan State Prediction

Michigan State and Iowa have faced each other a total of 50 times since the series kicked off in 1953. Iowa currently holds a narrow edge in total record at 25-23-2. 

The Spartans held the advantage in early days of the series, posting a record of 10-5-1 in the first 16 meetings. The tables were turned over the next 20 years as Iowa posted a record of 11-5-1 from 1979 to 1999. The series has been relatively even in the 21st century, with neither team winning more than two consecutive regular season games since the mid 1990s.

Iowa holds an edge against the spread, 11-6-2 since 1995. A more rigorous analysis reveals that the home team generally wins in this series slightly more than expected, based on the spread.

Both teams also have two upset wins apiece since 2001, including the Spartans' 32-20 win in Spartans Stadium last season as a 5.5-point favorite.

As for this year's contest, Iowa opened as a 16.5-point favorite at home. Historically, this translates into just a 12% chance of a Spartan upset. The only time in the last 30 years that the spread has been over 10 points was when the Spartans were a 21.5-point favorite at home in 1999. Michigan State won that game, 45-3.

Iowa's previous largest spread against the Spartans was in 2023 when the Hawkeyes were favored by exactly 10 points and wound up winning by exactly that margin.

My heartless computer is once again less optimistic than Vegas about Michigan State's chances.  My official projection is Iowa 35, Michigan State 14.

While I want to believe from the bottom on my hearth that the scenario I outlined above can happen, my head is telling my that my computer is most likely correct.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 13, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. 

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 13, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

As the Big Ten race reaches the final two weeks, there are five teams still technically alive to win the conference. No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana simply need to win out to secure spots in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

The Buckeye are huge favorite versus Rutgers (+33.5) this week and Indiana is on a bye, so the fate of the two favorites will almost certainly be decided next week. For the three remaining challengers, they need to win this week to stay in the race.

That makes the biggest Big Ten game on he schedule No. 14 USC at No. 4 Oregon (-10). The loser will pick up conference loss No. 2 which will mathematically eliminate them from the race as long as Ohio State wins. The winner will then need to win again next week and root for either Ohio State or Indiana to lose.

The Ducks also need a win to stay in the race for a possible playoff spot. USC is currently a long shot to reach the playoffs, but a win over Oregon could put the Trojans in position to move far enough up in the rankings to claim a spot.

No. 21 Michigan also needs a win to stave off conference elimination. The Wolverines are on the road at No. 62 Maryland (-12). The computers both favor the Terrapins against the spread.

The remaining Big Ten games have minor bowl implications. No. 15 Penn State needs to win out to become bowl eligible. The Nittany Lions are current a 10-point favorite at home versus No. 57 Nebraska.

No. 56 Northwestern needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. The Wildcats are narrow favorites at home versus No. 68 Minnesota (+4).

The remaining two conference games feature teams that have already secured a place in the bowl season against a team that has already been eliminated. No. 28 Washington and No. 18 Illinois will attempt to pad their bowl resumes at No. 70 UCLA (+10) and at No. 77 Wisconsin (+9) respectively.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action elsewhere in the college football landscape in Week 13.