Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Four: MSU Up All Night (with Dr. Green and White)

After three straight games in the friendly confines of Spartan Stadium, Michigan State is off this week for the first road game and first conference game of the season. The Spartans will be traveling across the USA to sunny Los Angeles to face the USC Trojans. But the bigger opponent on this trip might be time itself.

It takes a long time just to get to Southern California. A direct flight from Michigan takes over four hours. That's enough time to fit in a B movie, a cult classic, and maybe a few comedy skits on the in-fight entertainment system. It is also a long time for an athlete to be cooped up in a small space.

Once the team arrives and gets settled in L.A., the game itself does not kick off until 8 p.m. local time, which is 11 p.m. back home. That's a lot of time to kill. By the time the team finishes with the game, gets cleaned up, and returns to the hotel, it will likely be close to 5 a.m. according to their body clocks.

I am not as young as I used to be, but just thinking about that schedule is exhausting. I probably haven't stayed up all night since the late 1990s when I was a college student. This weekend I am going to have a tough time just staying awake to watch the game on television from my couch.

I know that college kids are used to staying up late. I understand that Coach Smith and his staff have strategies in place to mitigate the impact of jet lag. I have even tried using analytics to measure the effect of cross-country travel in sports. I have yet to uncover a clear impact.

But, despite these facts, I still do not like the intangibles of the travel and timing when it comes to the Spartans' chances on Saturday night. Combine this with the tiring amount of time the Michigan State medical staff spent last weekend helping players off the field and we are adding insult to injury.

That all said, there are still reasons to be optimistic about the Spartans' chances this weekend. The Trojans have a strong recent history of underachievement. Since head coach Pete Carroll left for the NFL under the cover of darkness in 2009, USC has started the season ranked in the top 15 a total of ten times. The Trojans finished the season with a higher ranking than they started with only once in that span. They finished the season unranked six times.

Following Week Three, USC debuted in the AP poll at No. 25. But by some measure, the Trojans were a bit underwhelming in last week's win at Purdue. USC failed to cover in West Lafayette, racked up 100 yards in penalties, and had one fewer first down than the Boilermakers. Purdue had three interceptions in the USC red zone, including one pick six.

USC has a high-powered offense that can put up big numbers, but the Trojans' defense appears to have its holes. In historically accurate fashion, the door might be open for a classic Spartan sneak attack against the men of Troy. That is, assuming they can stay awake.

Michigan State Prediction

Saturday will mark the first matchup between Michigan State (3-0) and USC (3-0) as conference foes. The all-time series is tied 4-4, and the Spartans are currently on a three-game winning streak.

Most recently, Michigan State defeated the Trojans in the 1990 Sun Bowl. Three seasons prior, the Spartans beat USC twice, once in East Lansing and then again in the Rose Bowl following the 1987 season.

The teams met five times in the regular between 1963 and 1978, with Michigan State winning only the home game in 1964. The Spartans are 0-3 all time in visits to the Colosseum in Los Angeles.

This year's contest opened with the Trojans favored by 16 points. At the time of press, that line has increased to 18.5 points. Based on these lines, the Spartans only have about a 13% chance of winning straight up.

Despite these long odds, an upset win by the Spartans would be far from unprecedented. Upsets of this magnitude happen about once a week in a typical college football season. So far this year I have charted four total upsets where the opening spread was at least 14 points including last week's upset of UCLA by New Mexico (+14), and the Week Two upset of Florida by South Florida (+18.5).

I have tracked 15 total games since 2001 where Michigan State has been at least 14-point underdogs on the road. Michigan State was an upset winner in three of those 15 games including the most recent example at Illinois (-14.5) in 2022.

That said, my computer is not overly optimistic about the Spartans' chances out west this weekend. I must admit, I also have my doubts. Without even factoring in the late start time or the recent injuries, my computer predicts a final score of: USC 44, Michigan State 21.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Four, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials.