Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week One: Wise Fools
Dr. Green and White presents his picks for the week, an overview of the week's action for Michiga State and beyond, and a little sophomoric humor.
Sophomore.
Noun: A student in the second year at college or a 4-year secondary school.
Adjective: Being or associated with the second in a series.
Etymology: Perhaps from Greek sophos wise + mōros foolish. In other words, a sophomore is a "wise fool."
On Friday night, head coach Jonathan Smith will lead the Michigan State Spartans into the sophomore season of his tenure in East Lansing. Just like the first day of class for a teenager, it's a pretty big deal. The emotions will be similar for Spartan fans, as Friday night brings a combination of both excitement and anxiety as Michigan State opens the season against the Western Michigan Broncos.
The first year of any new endeavor or new place can be difficult. One has to learn about the culture, the traditions, the people, and they must navigate their way around in an unfamiliar environment. The Michigan State season in 2024 at times had the vibe that the new kids on the block were just trying to find their footing.
But by the second year, things are usually a bit more stable. One usually starts to feel more settled and in control. One year older means one year wiser. One more year of experience should result in improved performance.
For Smith and his Spartans, the sophomore season oozes with potential. The roster has once again been retooled on both sides of the ball. The Spartans are led by second-year starter Aidan Chiles at the quarterback position and by rising start sophomore Nick Marsh at wide receiver. This duo has the potential to be dynamic, especially behind a suddenly deep and (hopefully) healthy offensive line. This pair alone is enough is reason enough to be optimistic about the future for the Green and White.
But Spartan fans know that it would be foolish to get too excited before a single snap has been played in the 2025 season. It has been three full years since the Green and White have enjoyed a game in the post season. The schedule this year is daunting and no matter what the score board reads late Friday night, there are many more challenges just around the bend.
Either way, 2025 is a big year for Smith, his staff, and his players. The sophomore year is often a time to set the precedent and expectation for the years to come. Will the Spartans be the jocks, the class clowns, or the burnouts? Fair or not, the result of the 2025-26 campaign will cause many to judge whether the hiring of Jonathan Smith was wise or foolish.
Michigan State Prediction
The Spartans lead the overall series with Western Michigan, 15-2. The Broncos' last win came over a century ago in 1919. Michigan State has won all 12 matchups with Western Michigan since the series restarted in 1980. In the seven contests with the Broncos this century, the Spartans have won by an average of 21 points and are 5-2 against the spread (ATS).
The Vegas line for the game opened at -17.5 for the Spartans and has increased to -21 at the time of press. The current point total line sits at 49.5 points. Based on this data, my model gives Michigan State a 89% chance to win the first game of Jonathan Smith's sophomore campaign.
In this space, it is my tradition to always let the unbiased and cold microprocessor in my laptop make my official pick about the game outcome. As it turns out, my machine is slightly more optimistic than Vegas.
I have the Spartans favored by a few more points (22.2 to be exact) and my model expects a few more points to be scored. My official final score prediction is Michigan State 39 Western Michigan 17. In other words, my computer thinks that it is wise to take the Spartans against the spread as well as the over on points.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week One. This table summarizes my predicted score for each Big Ten game, the opening Vegas line, the line projected by both my algorithm and ESPN's FPI, my computer's project point total (which for Week One is simply the historically average number of points scored per game in college football), and my recommended picks against the spread and straight-up (more on this later).
Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week One, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.
