Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Seven: One-Hit Wonders

There are times when a certain person, group, or piece of creative media rises into the public consciousness, seemingly from nowhere. In some cases, these concepts burst onto the scene and burn as bright as a supernova but soon fade into eternal darkness. 

In pop music, artists of this ilk are known as one-hit wonders. I would wager that many or all of you have heard the songs "Come on Eileen", "Tainted Love", "My Sharona", "Baby Got Back", "Mickey", and "I'm Too Sexy". Some of you can probably name the singer or group behind each of those songs. But can you name literally any other song from that artist?

Me neither.

The world of sports can also have its share of one-hit wonders, and I am not just talking about the theme of my Against All Odds article from earlier in the week. Sometimes a player, a coach, or a program can turn the beat around for a game or even a season before fading once again into obscurity. 

But sometimes it is difficult, especially early on, to distinguish between a one-hit wonder and a trend. One can easily be mistaken for another. 

I once believed that a certain bald head coach who lived in East Lansing a few years ago would lead the Spartans to a Big Ten title. I also thought at the beginning of the year that Indiana football was unlikely to repeat the success of 2024. My computer currently has the Hoosier ranked No. 2 in the country.

This week's homecoming clash between the Michigan State Spartans and the UCLA Bruins will be a similar test of the one-hit wonder concept on several different fronts, both positive and negative.

On the Spartans' sideline, there were a lot of surprising misses in the loss at Nebraska last weekend. The Michigan State running attack was surprisingly unproductive. Quarterback Aidan Chiles was strangely inaccurate. Special teams play, which had been a strength, suddenly had two costly gaffes.

But there were also some hidden-gem hits buried in the playlist in the loss in Lincoln. The Spartan defense generated a pass rush for the first time since Week One. Cornhusker quarterback Dylan Raiola was sacked five times. Nebraska was held scoreless for six straight possessions, despite in some cases having excellent starting field position. 

Michigan State also learned that backup quarterback Alessio Milivojevic can lead the team down the field and into the end zone without making key mistakes that haunted his previous game experience. These are all major signs of progress.

The Bruins may also be experiencing a one-hit wonder moment of their own. Coming into last week's against against Penn State, the Bruins were winless. All signs suggested that UCLA was the worst team in the conference. It was not out of the question that the Bruins could go winless on the season.

But somehow UCLA was able to rise up at home and score the biggest upset of the season so far against the Penn State Nittany Lions. Does this mean that going forward the Bruins are suddenly going to play at a level like what was expected at the beginning of the season? Or did the stars align for the Bruin in one shining moment against a sleepy and potentially overrated team from across the big country?

In my years of studying the data behind sports, I have learned the importance of not overreacting to single data points. Often, the data regresses to the mean. Even though we are only about halfway through the 2025 football season, we have enough data to make reasonable guesses as to what is real and what is just a little bad luck.

On Saturday, I do not expect multiple special teams blunders from the Spartans. I expect Aidan Chiles to revert to his previous, more efficient self, and despite concerns about the offensive line, I expect the Michigan State rushing attack will be whipped back into shape.

I also expect to see a version of UCLA, a west-coast team playing at 9 a.m. PDT, to revert to a version closer to the one that lost at UNLV by seven points, New Mexico by 25 points, and at Northwestern by three points.

I believe UCLA's performance last week was a one-week wonder, as were many of the issues the Spartans experienced in Lincoln. Furthermore, I think that some of the progress that Michigan State displayed last week on defense, although inconsistent, was not a one-week wonder. I believe that is a positive trend.

If I am right, I also believe that Michigan State will win this week's game when they take on UCLA, possibly by multiple touchdowns. I even still believe that this success might turn into something more than just a passing fad for the remainder of this season and beyond.

In other words, relax, Spartans fans. Don't worry, be happy.

Michigan State Prediction

The Michigan State Spartans and UCLA Bruins have only met six times in history, and the last meeting was over 50 years ago. 

The first meeting of two schools was the final game coached by Spartan legend Biggie Munn. Michigan State defeated UCLA in the Rose Bowl to close out the 1953 season. Two years later in 1955, new coach Duffy Daugherty defeated the Bruins again in the Rose Bowl.

In the fall of 1965, the Spartans opened the season by hosting UCLA in East Lansing. Michigan State won that game, but the Bruins would later exact their revenge on Jan. 1 in the Rose Bowl. The loss was the Spartans' only loss of the season, but they would go on to share the National Title with Alabama anyway.

The two schools would not meet again until a home-at-home series in the falls of 1973 and 1974. Michigan State lost both of those contests which brings the series record to 3-3 with the Bruins on a three-game win streak.

This year the point spread opened with Michigan State favored by 7.5 points. The line appears to be moving in the Spartans' direction, but based on the opening line Michigan State has a 70% chance of winning the game.

For the reasons outlined above, this point spread seems heavily influenced by recency bias. My computer is far, far more optimistic than Vegas. It proclaims that the spread is far too low. My algorithm is picking the Spartans in a homecoming blowout win: Michigan State 40, UCLA 18.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Seven, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that any rankings discussed below are my system's power rankings and not any of the national polls.