Bad Betting Advice 2025 Week Three: When You Were Young
MSU's Week Three opponent has us in a retroscpective mood
We are only three weeks into the season, but the opponent on the Michigan State schedule this week is causing me to feel a bit retrospective. I find myself thinking back to the days when we were all a little younger.
This week the Spartans will welcome the Youngstown State Penguins to East Lansing. The Spartans have won all three previous meetings with the Penguins in 2011, 2013, and 2021.
The series began 14 years ago at a time when the program was also towards the beginning of a rebuild. Non-conference games against the FCS opponent from Youngstown, Ohio were scheduled in part due to the many connections between head coach Mark Dantonio and that program.
Dantonio's first job as a defensive coordinator was at Youngstown State from 1986 to 1990 under head coach Jim Tressel. Jim's nephew Mike Tressel also served the Spartans' linebacker coach the first time the Penguins visited East Lansing.
At the time, Dantonio was attempting to shape his Spartan program by establishing many of the same fundamentals that he learned while on the Youngstown State staff. Dantonio constructed his teams to run the ball and to be hard as nails on defense. Some even labeled this style of play "Tressel ball."
Now, as the Spartans prepare to face Youngstown State once again, second-year head coach Jonathan Smith is once again trying to rebuild the Michigan State program using a similar blueprint based on hard-nosed defense and a ground attack. Smith also adds a modern, slightly west-coast flavor.
Coincidentally, past visits to East Lansing from Youngstown State have corresponded with excellent seasons by the Green and White. In 2011, Michigan State won the Big Ten Legends Division enroute to 11 wins, including a win over Georgia in the Outback Bowl.
In 2013, the Spartans won the Big Ten and finished 13-1 after beating Stanford in the Rose Bowl. In 2021, Michigan State won 11 games, culminating with a win over Pittsburgh in the Peach Bowl. The expectations at the beginning of those seasons were modest, at best. That feels like good karma.
Will Smith eventually be able put the Spartans in position to climb the mountain to the heights achieved by Dantonio back when you were young? Is there the potential to climb higher than ever before? Could that ascent happen as soon as this year?
Honestly, I don't know. I would like to believe that they can make it, but fans need to accept they they will have to take it slow. Last weekend's win over Boston College was a step in the right direction, but the remainder of the schedule is a killer.
I am a person that always looks on the bright side, but I am only human. I am not convinced that Michigan State will win enough games to make a bowl game.
But if you would have told me at the beginning of Dantonio's second season that the Spartans were on the cusp of a run of that would include seven double-digit win seasons, three Big Ten title, three New Years Six bowl wins, a playoff appearance, and 10 wins over Michigan over 14 seasons, I would not have believed you.
Both the current season and the tenure of Jonathan Smith are still young and full of potential and possibility. The future is unwritten. It is okay to imagine a return to the type of program success back when you were young. You can dip you feet in that pool of optimism every once in a little while.
Michigan State Prediction
As mentioned above, the Spartans welcome the Youngstown State Penguins to East Lansing this week. The Penguins are members of the Missouri Valley Conference and Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). Michigan State is 10-0 all time against FCS opponents.
When one sees the abbreviation "FCS," one might assume that this weekend will be a complete cake walk. But a closer look gives me some pause.
Not all FCS teams are created equally. In the FBS, there is a clear difference between a top 10 team like Ole Miss and a top 100 team like Northwestern. In Bill Connelly's most recent ranking, Youngstown State is ranked No. 7 in the FCS.
When I dig deeper into my power rankings, on a neutral field, Youngstown State projects to be favored to in hypothetical matchups with both New Mexico (+3) and UMass (+21). This means that Michigan State will have a tougher opponent than either UCLA or Iowa this week.
The Spartans' Week One opponent, Western Michigan, would be favored over the Penguins by less than one point. I project that UCLA would only be a three-point favorite over Youngstown State. As ridiculous as it might sound, Youngstown State might be better than two of the FBS teams on the Michigan State schedule this year.
As one would guess from this preamble, Youngstown State is off to a strong start in 2025. The Penguins are 2-0 with wins over Mercyhurst (24-15) and Robert Morris (56-17).
Junior quarterback Beau Brungard leads Youngstown State. In just two games this season, Brungard has completed over 70% of his passes. More interestingly, he has rushed for over 409 yards and over 10 yards per carry. He is credited with seven touchdowns, including six on the ground.
I don't care who the competition is. Those are impressive stats. Youngstown State could present some unique challenges to the defense. I do not mean to imply that Brungard is the Second Coming or anything, but the Penguins will not be a pushover.
Michigan State should still get a comfortable win. But something tells me that the game could be much closer, much later in the game than many Spartan fans are expecting. As for a final score, my computer spits out a projection of Michigan State 38, Youngstown State 15.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Three, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials.
