Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Two: More Than a Feeling

Back in the summer, when I was reviewing the overall schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, I had a feeling that there was one specific game that could be the defining event for both the 2025 season and the young Jonathan Smith tenure. There was one game, more than any of the others, that I felt would signal whether Spartans fans would be ready to party in 2025 or if they would need to cool the engines.

It was more than a feeling, if I am being honest. That feeling was that the Spartans' performance against a certain group of guys from Boston would be bellwether for the rest of the season and possibly beyond. That weekend is now upon us as the Boston College Eagles are on their way to Spartan Stadium.

Spartan fans are used to bad news recently. They are ready to have that peace of mind that the program is headed in the right direction. Getting a win over a Pour Four team in the non-conference, even a middle-of-the-road ACC team, is the step that Michigan State needs to take.

If Michigan State stumbles against the Eagles, I have a feeling that the Green and White will struggle, and likely fail, to make a bowl game. Several of the Spartans' future Big Ten opponents looked weaker than expected in Week One. But the Boston College game is likely no better than the third easiest game remaining on the schedule.

If Michigan State can eke out a win, it will certainly be a positive sign for the Spartans. It still might be tough to find four more wins on the 2025 schedule, but it is easy to imagine getting there.

It's been a long time since Michigan State has enjoyed a winning season. Just getting to 0.500 this year won't leave many Spartan fans feeling satisfied, but it is the first and most important milestone in the Jonathan Smith rebuild. 

However, at my core I am an optimistic person. In this case, I have a feeling that the Spartans will come out strong and may even beat the Eagles by double-digits. If the Spartans can play tough. smart football for 60 minutes, and if the coaching staff can make the needed adjustments as the game progresses, I have more than a feeling that is exactly what we will see.

In this scenario, I would say hitch a ride on the Jonathan Smith train, don't look back, and enjoy the journey. Don't be afraid to dream big.

Michigan State Prediction

Saturday marks just the eighth all-time meeting between the Michigan State Spartans and the Boston College, with the Eagles leading the series 5-1-1. Note that three of the previous seven games were played prior to 1950.

Last season, the Spartans gave up a 42-yard touchdown pass with 1:28 left in the game in the 23-19 loss in Boston. Michigan State also fell to the Eagles and quarterback Matt Ryan in the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando, Florida, 24-21.

Boston College has only visited East Lansing two times previously. Most recently the Spartans earned their only victory over Boston College in the series in a 25-21 win in 1995. The only other visit to Michigan ended in a 34-20 loss for the Spartans back in 1946.

Last week, Boston College opened the season with a 66-10 win over FCS opponent Fordham. The Eagles put up 458 passing yards, but just 98 yards on the ground against a team that Bill Connelly ranks as just the No. 98 team (of 129) in the FCS.

The Spartans opened as a three-point favorite at home and the spread increased slightly to 4.5 points. The bookmakers have set the point total at 45.5 points. Based on the opening spread, Michigan State has a 58% chance to win the game straight up.

My algorithm has a positive feeling about the chances for the Green and White. My computer projects a final score of Michigan State 31, Boston College 22. Based on the point total, my analysis also recommends taking the over on points. As for that prediction, I think I like it.

I should also mention that ESPN's FPI metric is picking the Eagles in an upset by less than a point. We will see this weekend whose computer is more connected to a higher power.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Two, including my projected scores, the opening point spread and the feelingless computers' projected point differential.