Michigan State Basketball: On the precipice of another great season
Reasons for concern, but also reasons for optimism
Projected depth-chart (more or less):
Jeremy Fears (6’2” R-So) - Divine Ogochukwu (6’3” So)
Trey Fort (6’4” Sr) - Kur Teng (6’4” So)
Coen Carr (6’6” Jr) - Jordan Scott (6’7” Fr)
Jaxon Kohler (6’9” Sr) - Cam Ward (6’8” Fr)
Carson Cooper (6’11” Sr) - Jesse McCulloch (6’10” R-Fr)
On paper, this Michigan State team looks less threatening than last year’s group that finished with a 30-7 record, as Big Ten Champions, and with a solid run to the Elite Eight, falling to a strong Auburn team (by 6 points), who, in turn, lost to the national champion Florida Gators.
Last year’s group had a dynamic four-guard rotation, a couple of solid forwards, and a strong big-man trio. But, interestingly enough, last year’s team should have been even better than it was - what should have been an excellent shooting team ultimately floundered its way to a #319 ranking in terms of three-point shooting percentage in the country. Remember going into last season, Holloman, Akins, and Fidler were all expected to be shooting at least 35% from three-point range (Holloman shot 33%, Akins shot 29%, and Fidler shot 19% from three-point range last season).
The squad became a dynamic team because it became a dynamic defensive team, especially on the perimeter, and by rebounding the defensive glass at a terrific rate, which allowed the team to play with solid pace and score in transition. The team also generated a lot of offensive advantages in the half-court, which especially led to a high free-throw rate, despite not having a tremendous low-post scorer (Kohler was the team’s best option).
For these reasons, fans should be a little less concerned with the projected concerns from three-point range that, at least on paper, appear to be the biggest liability this year's team possesses as it approaches the season’s opening contest. Kaleb Glenn would have become a crucial three-point threat, but given he will not play this season, the Spartans will have to look elsewhere.
Trey Fort, a well-traveled veteran scorer, should look to get a ton of shots from the perimeter.
Kur Teng is a natural shooter, who will have to take and make a ton of shots at this level after rarely playing last season.
Jordan Scott, another natural shooter, will have chances to cement a role as a freshman.
Jaxon Kohler showed a solid shooting stroke last season and will undoubtedly have at least two three-point shots per game.
The three wild-card shooters will be Jeremy Fears, Coen Carr, and Jesse McCulloch - if one (or two) of this trio of players take a real step-forward as a three-point shooter, then a lot of the Spartan question marks get erased. While Spartan fans have seen Fears step up and make big three-point shots, even with a mercurial form, and have seen Carr demonstrate his ability to improve his shooting consistency from the free-throw line and the three-point line, they have yet to see McCulloch play at all. He is a long, offensively skilled big, who, as a high school player, confidently took and made perimeter shots with real consistency as well as passing effectively and finishing around the rim due to his wingspan.
But enough of speculation about shooting proficiency, let's answer this question: what is this team going to be great at?
This team will defend, rebound, and run.
There is a clear path for this team to become a dynamic defensive group: Jeremy Fears, Coen Carr, Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler, and Cam Ward should all be ‘plus’ defenders.
The biggest question in the line-up on that end is the shooting-guard position. Fort is not a natural defender, and while Teng certainly seems engaged on that end, it remains to be seen how he will fare against high-level shooting guards in the college game. While some fans might doubt Kohler on defense, they should remember that - while his first two seasons in green and white were full of defensive misadventure - last season he proved a solid post-defender, improved in pick-and-roll, and, significantly, was a major contributor on the defensive glass (the final and crucial portion of a ‘defensive stop’).
Fears and Carr should be absolutely terrific defensive players - they already were last year. Carson Cooper was a great defender all over the court last season, and Cam Ward has a chance to carve out a Swiss-army-knife defensive stopper role.
Divine Ugochukwu has a chance to take minutes at the shooting guard as well as taking the minutes at point guard when Fears needs a rest. Ugochukwu, if he can cement a major role for himself, could help re-create the kind of dynamic 4-guard perimeter force that the Spartans boasted last season, but to do that he needs to find a way to really contribute on the offensive end. Look for him to replicate Fears’ offensive game - attacking the paint, scoring in transition, and getting to the free-throw line.
To step back for a moment: yes, it is clear that the Spartans have a less-proven roster than they did entering last season in some ways. But, importantly, the team has everything it needs to prove the shocking number of doubters wrong.
Consider the position group personnel changes:
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